If you may select your next project, which would you take? The one with the most risk and most outcome ? If yes, you might be a winner like Fidelity or Schwab that chose to enter the online-broker market in the early 90ies. If not, you might be in fear like Merril Lynch that feared things like Perl, Java, CGI, serverside logic, HTML and other "silver-bullets" of the early 90ies... and keep your growth stale at +/- 0%. On the other hand - a lot of companies that chose the risky way to not exists anymore...
tools [1] (Excel based) you can download from their web-page. Not the most important issue in my opinion but nice for the more detailled analysis. I will take a look at that later.
You can even get some sample chapters of Waltzing With Bears: Managing Risk on Software Projects [2] at their website.
This is a must-read for every project manager, developer, customer and CEO.
You can also download from the October issue of IEEE Software, Lister and DeMarco's article on Risk Management during Requirements [3]